Destiny Could Outsell Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, Says Analyst, Battlefield Hardline Unlikely to Sell Well

According to Cowen Research analyst Doug Creutz and research based on studies of cumulative video game preoders, Activision and Bungie’s new IP Destiny, launching this September 9 on Xbox One, PlayStation 4, Xbox 360, and PlayStation 3, could sell 10 million to 15 million copies. That’s $600 million to $900 million in revenue, likely making it the top-selling title of the year.

It’s been reported that Activision has budgeted $500 million for production and marketing for Destiny over the course of its projected 10-year life span.

The analysis, backed by six years of Amazon bestseller data and NPD’s reported physical sales of games, is based on Cowen’s Ordometer, which correlates U.S. video game orders before launch and sale results after launch. Data is measured weekly, beginning during the Electronic Entertainment Expo to the end of the year for both Xbox and PlayStation consoles.

Creutz’s report mentions that Destiny has the highest Ordometer score of any game tracked over the past four years and has the chance to outsell Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, another Activision-published game set to launch this November 4 on similar platforms, but with the inclusion of PC.

According to Creutz, Advanced Warfare’s current stats are comparable to Call of Duty: Black Ops 2′s, which showed a slow start for preorders in 2012 but went on to become the best selling Call of Duty title to-date. Creutz writes that the “overall trajectory of Advanced Warfare remains up for debate” but that its performance may be determined in the next few weeks of preorders.

On EA’s end, Cruetz’s analysis predicts that Visceral Games’ recently announced cops and criminals shooter Battlefield Hardline is unlikely to sell well. Thus far, its Ordometer score is more in line with 2012′s Medal of Honor: Warfighter, and is only a fraction of where Battlefield 4 and Battlefield 3 were in 2011 and 2013, respectively.

You can catch the current Ordometer ratings below:

ordometer-2014

Thanks, VentureBeat

  • Mat Houchens

    I’m pretty excited for Destiny. It looks like most people feel the same way. However there’s 2 more months for COD AW to catch up.

    • yardis

      After I played the alpha , I was sold on Destiny.

      • George

        Same

  • MegaMan3k

    The pre-order bonus of the game beta is surely skewing their algorithm. I hope they’re considering that.

    • MrMultiPlatform

      A pre-order is still a pre-order.

      • MegaMan3k

        Sure. Could you elaborate on your point? My interpretation so far is that your response to “there are complicating factors” is “there’s only one way to look at this.”

      • http://www.facebook.com/datkidfromawendaw Clay Johnson

        I think he’s referring to Destiny in that people mainly pre-order for the beta rather than genuine want. He’s inferring that their data is pure conjecture in that regard as people may well(because some will) cancel their pre-order if they do not feel the game will he for them. Whether or not it is significant enough to actually affect analysis and estimation, who knows.

  • Robenter

    I wonder what the trend is right now with pre-orders. There seems to be a backlash against preordering a game and I wonder if this formula will still hold true since it is based on sales from previous years.

  • RustyFrags

    I hope Hardline doesn’t sell well. Hopefully it serves as a wake-up call to EA that we’re tired of paying full price for half finished games. Even if the game works decent from launch, EA needs to realize getting away with shameless monetization isn’t going to get by unnoticed.

    • MrMultiPlatform

      It wont.

    • VEX_VEHIX

      THIS!

      First they called us liars when we complained about BF4′s shit launch. Now they act humble, as if they care, just to advertise Hardline.

      Hardline is an expansion pack, simple as that.

      • Ryan Schulze

        Thankfully, I only paid $40 for BF4, which is why I’ve kept it. Still no DLC for me. I keep watching and waiting for some DLC that looks really special, but nothing so far.

        • theplantain

          only spent $8 on my copy, no DLC…i’ve been keeping an eye on the new content but can’t push myself to buy any of it

          • Ryan Schulze

            That’s a pretty good deal and you can’t complain about the game at that price for sure.

            • theplantain

              i paid off my game through gift cards but regardless, EA got their money one way or another, as a gamer, i feel obligated to speak out against their shady practices

            • Ryan Schulze

              I bought BF4, Madden, & Knack on Day 1 with a Buy 2, get 1 free. Surprised I returned Madden almost immediately. Knack wasn’t too far behind, because it was too difficult for my 5 year old to play along. BF4 I actually held onto. Came close to dropping it, but it’s better now and I just couldn’t get into either of the FTP shooters on PS4. If Planetside2 ever actually shows up, that may change, though I expect Watch Dogs and TLOU PS4 multiplayer to keep me occupied for quite awhile.

            • Mike

              I cant afford to buy games day 1 and go home to find out it blows. Its hard to find a game I dont regret buying. I bought BF4 because I wanted something to play on my Ps4 which I played once or twice and traded it in for 16 bucks. I get tired of being ripped off from Gamestop too. BF4 forever tainted my game buying needs. Funny thing is I wasnt even this pissed off when I got Duke Nukem!

            • Ryan Schulze

              Totally get that. In my case, I basically rented the games for free, because most of the buy backs for Next Gen games that first few months was $40, so I could trade in the games for the same I paid for them. My favorite week 1 purchase was NBA2K14. I’m just thankful we have real reviews now. When I was a kid, we had Nintendo Power and that was it. My brother and I would save our money for two months, go to the store, and study the boxes in the hopes of finding a game we’d like. Sometimes they were good. Sometimes they absolutely sucked.

      • ThatSpeakerOfTruth

        To be absolutely fair, even given multiple corrections to your statements that they called the collective us liars about Battlefield 4′s launch when the quote in question was taken before the game’s launch, people continue to hound them on that. I won’t try to stop people like you from complaining about how tactless the remark was (even when it was reported second-handedly online and, again, not about Battlefield 4), but I will suggest that it was at least an astute idea to bring up.

        I see all these people “denounce” EA or Battlefield for some of the worst reasons. If you don’t want to buy the game, don’t; you do not need to reach for as many reasons as possible to justify it to others more than you do yourself. There are, after all, more objective (that is, less emotional and impulsive) points for people to cry foul about than their perception of how an entire company personally treated them.

        • VEX_VEHIX

          Wow…you sound so smaht.

          Ridiculously long reply for nothing. They called us liars way back then, even after we gave them a chance with BF3, just to repeat the same horrible launch and issues with BF4. Now they attempt some kind of real patching 8 months later. THAT is why I drag their names in the mud. They don’t learn, and neither do you diehard fans who keep supporting their bullshit tactics.

          Not to mention the “Only Premium members can join the CTE servers” to help dictate the direction of this shit title. Another blatant marketing stunt….but you just keep eating up, genuis.

    • Richie Tellez

      I like the Battlefield frienchise, but i’m with you. BF4 was a complete crap. Netcode didnt bother me that much. Its the stuff in game that bother me. BFH i dont think there enough new things or features to call it a new game. I liked the Beta more then BF4 but still nowhere close as playing BF3 for the first time or going back and playing BC2. Hopefully THIS will be the wakeup call. And i hope they dont screw things up with BF3 (Battlefront 3) or BFBC3 if its ever made.

    • Brandon Stern

      Couldn’t agree more. I hope that Hardline flops, it’s the first Battlefield I refuse to purchases day one in many many years.

    • Aria68

      I love Battlefield to death, and as much as i believe BF:H might bring a little bit of positivity to BF with it’s expectedly better launch, i still won’t support it. EA should realize that even thought there are millions of Battlefield fans out there but despite COD fanbase, BF ones are more mature and adult and they won’t fall for this yearly rehash bullshit that EA try to pull!

      • Heqcell

        “BF fans are more mature”

        Thanks for the laugh.

        • http://www.twitch.tv/el3ment514 El3

          Battlefield fans are becoming the most whiny gamers on the planet. Congrats

      • Patrick Matthew Barahona

        The Battlefield community has been horrible ever since BF3…it’s falling almost like the COD community already has…

    • Mike

      BF4 made me second guess every purchase I made, even tooth paste.

  • MrMultiPlatform

    Short term Destiny will outsell Advanced Warfare. Long term it wont.

    • KingUndrCrwn

      Are you serious? AW is a COD game, it will inevitably be over shadowed by a following COD which will be picked up by mostly the same audience that bought AW. Destiny is set to sprawl a 10 year span, the game is literally built with longevity in mind. To add further to that the game expands on the normal FPS element and attracts MMO minded players as well.

      • MrMultiPlatform

        So your whole argument is proving me right.

      • Danny Martin

        Destiny isn’t set to be a “10 year game”, the trilogy of Destiny games is set to span 10 years.

  • marpla78

    The hype for destiny is not the same but this game is on my list.

    BF Hardline will be an Epic Fail like MOH WF was…true story.

  • VEX_VEHIX

    LMFAO!

    It took “Analysts” to determine Hardline’s possible failure in initial sales?

    Just read all of the forums!!! BF4 has caused too doubt in EA/DICE’S work.

    • yardis

      The Hardline beta was actually good, but I doubt I’ll buy it because of the games that come out this year. It’s way to many great games that are coming out September through November. I have counted 8 games that I will be getting in that span of time.

      • VEX_VEHIX

        I agree. Although it’s just a reskinned BF4, but fun.

        Same here, way too many great games this year, especially on PC. :)

  • yardis

    Anyone who has played the alpha will tell you that Destiny is a great game. If the beta was open to more than the people who preorder the game, Destiny would sell so much better.

  • Heqcell

    There are mindless drones here who are willing to drop $60 on Hardline because it has a slightly souped-up game mode. Because of them, I (sadly) doubt Hardline’s sales will be as bad as Creutz predicts.

    • VEX_VEHIX

      Sad but true.

      “Awww, EA/DICE acknowledged their bullshit just in time, maybe I should give Hardline a shot. They are soooooo sweet. *Heart*” – Sheeple.

      • theplantain

        i’ve been a BF nut for a while but BF4 was my wakeup call… BF was the only exception to my EA boycott, but not anymore…the shady BF4 launch and the game’s inability to catch my interest for a good period of time means that i won’t be giving them my $ anytime soon or ever for that matter

    • Laser0pz

      To be fair, the game does have more of a focus on the singleplayer as well, which could balance out the pricing reasons.

      In previous BF games, it was either no multiplayer or a short tacked-on singleplayer.

      From the Omaha trailers, is seems like Visceral are actually working hard on it. I might rent the game near release just to play the storyline. I’d get the game, but only after a price drop due to more games I’d rather have.

      I think Hardline would have benefited from a spring release instead of fall, solely for the reason that it would have seemed more like a spin-off then a mod.

    • EloTh eMan

      The core BF players are skeptical about BFH, not mindless drones.
      They are willing to spend another 60 if they can get away from BF4 booring gunplay, inbalanced classes and buggy behavior, but since BFH is a cop vs robber game and not “all out warfare” people will doubt if it will give them lasting fun for the buck.

      BF3 success was partially because it gave great variety, BFH does not have that.

      BFH got that great gunplay, awesome weapon systems, satisfying class balance and a netcode, despite being in beta, that works better than the BF3.
      But appart from that its not much to hooray about, map design is suffering from BF4 scaling, vehicles are boring and only good for objective play and nothing else, no classic BF game modes and the ones that are in the game are loosely based on CTF who we all know was a terrible game mode in previous titles.

      I personally, and probably other core BF players, feel a bit tired of BF4 and going over to BFH is going to be like selling your left hand to buy a glove for the other one.

      Is it worth it?
      Maybe, but probably not. Waiting for BF4 fixes and hoping for a gunplay/class remake seems like a better idea.

    • Will Hamlett

      Wow…people who like BF:H are no more drones than the ones who like COD:AW. both of those games prequels were terrible in some form or another.

    • Marko Pam

      I hope Hardline will be total fiasco
      NO way I am buying this crap. I have bf4 still to play, 2 more DLC coming.
      Only brainless fanboys will buy HL.

  • ascaryghost

    EA needs to grow a brain and realize that Hardline is not a $60 game. They’re screwing themselves over and when it fails, Visceral will suffer because knowing EA, they will shut down Visceral. Either drop the price or hold the game back another 6 months or so to add more to justify the price tag.

  • awkenney

    Calculating this prior to the announcement of COD:AW Hardened or Prestige editions just doesn’t make sense. Too early.

    • http://mp1st.com/ David Veselka

      You’re likely right, but I’m also waiting for Bungie to drop the deets on dat Destiny collector’s edition, whatever it may be.

      • Ryan Schulze

        I would think that the percentage of people who actually buy special editions are fairly small and don’t sway the end numbers much at all. Now, if for say $80 you get a game and four map pack DLCs, then it would, but a special case, action figure, hat, map, lithograph, rc car, or whatever they throw in doesn’t seem like it would do much in final numbers when we’re talking about over 5 million or more copies being sold.
        COD sells well every year, not because of bonuses, or catering to the competitive gamer crowd, it’s because of the masses of gamers that play one game when they play video games, for those five hours a month, after the initial release.

  • Ryan Schulze

    I’ve been a Battlefield convert for a few years, but I’m more likely to go COD this fall over BFH. Of course Destiny is more likely than either of those and a rising star on my list is Evolve. Very excited by its possibilities.

    • VEX_VEHIX

      Same here….sad huh? They ultimately forced BF fans to look elsewhere, including their #1 competitor. Morons!

      • theplantain

        This guy knows what’s up…EA started a war with Activision and continues to get whooped, only to further destroy its reputation, the reps of its devs and mess up once respected franchises…I’m no fan of Activision but respect their ability to keep bringing in the $$ and make EA look like idiots

  • MegaMan3k

    For COD, I’ve always wondered how significant the August/September MP reveal are and how significant the Hardened/Prestige edition announcements are to preorder numbers.

  • Will Hamlett

    Wow…it’s sad that Hardline may not do well based purely on BF4 and it’s terrible launch. I have already pre-ordered the game based purely on the amount of fun I had with the Beta, but I do understand why people are not going for it. Honestly if it does fail; I hope EA does learn a serious lesson form this. Even when you make a good game your track record will burn you. It’s crazy how people are pointing out something that you could accuse any serialized product of doing (simply being a re-skin) and tossing the pile on BF:Hardline. God knows each new COD has been the same thing. Same can be said for Assassins Creed, or hell even sports games in general, but this game….this game is the only one getting that distinction. Lol….trust me I get it….but why not just say you feel burned by the BF4 launch and leave it at that.

  • KennyKyle

    gta v on pc woot woot

    • Ryan Schulze

      Yeah, I’m enjoying Watch Dogs and have GTA V on my 360, but if they can make the online experience better, I’ll probably re buy GTA this fall, but on PS4 instead of PC. And that would be a higher priority than BFH or COD.

  • Jack S.

    I was so hyped for BF4. I didn’t even bat an eye when Hardline was announced. They just slapped Battlefield on the title to sell more copies.

  • Mike

    Destiny, Borderlands, Evolve and FarCry! Great games incoming! Oh I forgot, This month The Last of Us drops!

  • Tom

    Personally, I’m willing to give Hardline a chance. Battlefield 4 was FUBAR’d because it was DICE who FUBAR’d it and continue to do so, (Just this week they did “Maintenance” on BF4 that somehow killed the ping on ALL servers, and Dragon’s Teeth is delayed for a 3rd time). So, to me, DICE is getting a time out (due to BF4′s problems, while the new kid in class gets a turn.

    DICE won’t get the opportunity to f*ck this game up, and I’m glad for it.

  • Bmeowmix

    Of course Destiny is going to outsell CoD. Destiny is a new franchise that has been super-hyped (which has been kind of justified) while CoD is… CoD. Apparently there are some big changes but it still is going to feel like CoD: fast paced fast TTK.

    Also, I can understand why BFH is going to sell so poorly, but I was lucky enough to not have problems with BF4, so thats going on my preorder list for sure

  • Marko Pam

    BF:Hardline feels and plays like DLC for bf4. After fiasco with bf4 launch, NO way I am going to buy Hardline. HL comes in October, but there is 2 more DLCs to come for bf4 and some more hours of play.
    Hardline is crap.

  • Oneil Martinez

    They dropped the ball on it with the hole cop vs robber thing it should have been c.i.a., f.b.i , n.s.a swatt, mi6 ,spetnaz, vs herzbolla, al-ciada al-nuzra, al-shabob in urban combat then it could have been called battle field.

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