According to Cowen Research analyst Doug Creutz and research based on studies of cumulative video game preoders, Activision and Bungie’s new IP Destiny, launching this September 9 on Xbox One, PlayStation 4, Xbox 360, and PlayStation 3, could sell 10 million to 15 million copies. That’s $600 million to $900 million in revenue, likely making it the top-selling title of the year.
It’s been reported that Activision has budgeted $500 million for production and marketing for Destiny over the course of its projected 10-year life span.
The analysis, backed by six years of Amazon bestseller data and NPD’s reported physical sales of games, is based on Cowen’s Ordometer, which correlates U.S. video game orders before launch and sale results after launch. Data is measured weekly, beginning during the Electronic Entertainment Expo to the end of the year for both Xbox and PlayStation consoles.
Creutz’s report mentions that Destiny has the highest Ordometer score of any game tracked over the past four years and has the chance to outsell Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare, another Activision-published game set to launch this November 4 on similar platforms, but with the inclusion of PC.
According to Creutz, Advanced Warfare’s current stats are comparable to Call of Duty: Black Ops 2′s, which showed a slow start for preorders in 2012 but went on to become the best selling Call of Duty title to-date. Creutz writes that the “overall trajectory of Advanced Warfare remains up for debate” but that its performance may be determined in the next few weeks of preorders.
On EA’s end, Cruetz’s analysis predicts that Visceral Games’ recently announced cops and criminals shooter Battlefield Hardline is unlikely to sell well. Thus far, its Ordometer score is more in line with 2012′s Medal of Honor: Warfighter, and is only a fraction of where Battlefield 4 and Battlefield 3 were in 2011 and 2013, respectively.
You can catch the current Ordometer ratings below: