Highguard and Other Live-Service Games Are Just Investor Bets, Says Developer
Wildlight Entertainment has confirmed that Highguard will no longer be available starting March 14, as its servers are shutting down.
Highguard’s debut now joins the list of short-lived live-service titles such as Concord. Despite repeated failures, companies continue to release similar projects. According to developer Tyler Glaiel, this ongoing trend is largely driven by investor pressure.
Live-Service Games Like Highguard Are High-Risk Bets
Glaiel, who has worked on games like Mewgenics and The End Is Nigh, explained on X that games as a service (GAAS) are essentially bets made by shareholders. He said titles like Highguard and Concord are built on a very small chance of success.
“Every game like highguard / concord / etc is essentially gambling by investors because a 5% of the game taking off and making 1 billion dollars means its positive expected value to bet up to 50 million dollars on it,” Glaiel said.
According to him, there may be only a 5% chance that a game becomes a hit. However, if it succeeds, it could generate over a billion dollars in revenue. That possible reward is what motivates investors to fund projects that can cost 50 million dollars or more. For large shareholders, this amount is small compared to the potential return.
In the case of Highguard, a major part of the funding came from Tencent. Once the project failed to deliver results, the company quickly pulled its support.
“They know ahead of time a flop is likely. It doesn’t matter for those who have billions to bet cause they can do that enough times to get something that actually does work out and covers the losses on the rest,” Glaiel added.
The biggest risk is not taken by shareholders, but by the studios caught in this system. Wildlight experienced major layoffs after Highguard was shut down, just as the developers of Concord did.
Glaiel also said that “it’s mostly pointless to try and analyze “what could they have done differently / where did they miss the mark here?” because it’s basically like trying to suggest how you should change which lottery numbers you pick next time.”
His comments apply to many companies. In his view, they are all chasing the next Fortnite, hoping to secure a massive and steady source of income.
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Too bad they are betting with the jobs of the staff working on these ‘bets’. Most of these games fail and the entire team is wiped out and fired.